Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 8.847993 10.425389 12.159944 14.203059 16.537685 19.115927 22.172240
2025-01-26 6.937882 9.095026 11.685134 14.999595 19.101106 23.981038 30.194452
2025-02-02 5.665133 8.117096 11.281832 15.610404 21.312804 28.497649 38.152838
2025-02-09 4.821782 7.457848 11.075700 16.306542 23.560040 33.130996 46.555345
2025-02-16 3.988427 6.625903 10.457064 16.283115 24.741291 36.365884 53.290791
2025-02-23 3.229339 5.748432 9.611660 15.772472 25.105820 38.421232 58.475153
2025-03-02 2.609703 4.967525 8.776890 15.131450 25.149089 39.942039 62.921173
2025-03-09 2.241541 4.531990 8.408369 15.135682 26.113838 42.812663 69.444938
2025-03-16 1.948650 4.173648 8.108540 15.194966 27.135035 45.797217 76.282970
2025-03-23 1.690321 3.831501 7.783903 15.160262 27.973656 48.521661 82.851573
2025-03-30 1.400056 3.372893 7.184493 14.570089 27.813553 49.621813 86.907328
2025-04-06 1.227814 3.123119 6.935516 14.568916 28.638140 52.339402 93.666024
2025-04-13 1.069959 2.880308 6.676720 14.537398 29.434745 55.112046 100.772882
2025-04-20 1.012903 2.855603 6.852143 15.352317 31.821694 60.725284 112.921348
2025-04-27 0.943201 2.788001 6.928428 15.976220 33.898805 65.922336 124.641561
2025-05-04 0.886807 2.742404 7.044244 16.686664 36.185134 71.608683 137.482784
2025-05-11 0.782794 2.553588 6.817901 16.662827 37.050358 74.802638 146.144519
2025-05-18 0.661018 2.289830 6.381860 16.141863 36.886480 76.104408 151.513879
2025-05-25 0.550001 2.029106 5.911899 15.487803 36.387376 76.734410 155.680393
2025-06-01 0.488623 1.900643 5.745315 15.492123 37.230173 79.915694 164.623160
2025-06-08 0.437212 1.791057 5.610320 15.552618 38.189528 83.363377 174.211122
2025-06-15 0.387828 1.675837 5.443272 15.517205 38.935166 86.427949 183.214546
2025-06-22 0.323704 1.492183 5.061588 14.914961 38.387949 86.901233 187.309323